I'm on a biz trip to Munich & hence probably have more time than I should to write this post. ;-) In any case, if you bought the arguments in Swamp Draining - I, the next question is "how do we solve this problem?"
Here, my somber, pessimistic note about terrorism being a proverbial "whack a mole" with bigger and bigger teeth flips into a far more idealistic message. Walls may have saved Rome (for a time) but modern technology like aircraft, and soon, WMD, enable those who don't share enough of our ideals to do some serious damage - WITHOUT having to build much on their own. Whether you're an idealist or a realist, WMD tech forces us to adopt a certain stance towards the ideals of folks in other countries.
Contention #2 - The Long Term Solution is to seed Liberal Democracy + Capitalism into the region.
Other writers / poli scientists like Francis Fukuyama and Fareed Zakaria provide far more eloquence and data to back up the assertion that "LD +C" is the best governance model to date for channelling the Tragic Frustrations of Men. What system provides a (non violent) means of feeling like you've been heard, noticed, or Recognized? What system best channels ambitions into something that creates goods for others? I highly recommend Fukuyama's End of History as the best single source I've come across that links a strong philosophy of human nature with the contention that LD+C provides its best fulfillment (other parts of the the book have admittedly come under fire...)
How does LD+C solve our long simmering problem with Islamic impotency?
- Internally, LD + C channels energies towards productive ends -- Instead of blowing something up, I'm highly incented to be the BMOC by instead building something. Big.
Cool. LD+C creates jobs, reduces idleness, gives / encourages them something to live for and so on. We probably don't need to say too much more about this on a libertarian blog ;-)
Don't take my word for it, let's hear what the enemy has to say:
...The goal of democracy, according to Al-Ayyeri, is to "make Muslims love this world, forget the next world and abandon jihad." If established in any Muslim country for a reasonably long time, democracy could lead to economic prosperity, which, in turn, would make Muslims "reluctant to die in martyrdom" in defense of their faith.
I disagree w/ Al-Ayyeri in a very minor way - I think that Econ will drive liberalism and thus democracy in these regions rather than vice versa. Tribal folks who have little abstract idea of what constitutes "Freedom of Speech" nevertheless often have a concrete understanding of why it's cool to buy a funky cell phone. Either path towards sophistication is fine by me.
Constructive enterprise taking root in these regions will create the openness, dissention, and tolerance over the long run. These qualities make life in this world more interesting than hanging around waiting to enter the next one in a blaze of jetfuel fired glory.
- Externally, LD's don't attack each other (as much) -- in the admittedly short history of LD+C, there are few cases of LD's attacking each other. Done corrrectly, LD+C channels ambitions into paying off mortgages & buying nicer cars rather than enflaming passions towards recapturing some lost national property.
More Chinese and Russians would rather trade with us and spend vacation dollars in NYC than see it disappear under a mushroom cloud (certainly relative to a generation ago).
The Long Term reason that China and the US won't nuke each other is because China needs Wal-Mart and so does the US.
- LD + C does NOT mean Westernization -- The standard for successful LD+C in these countries isn't whether they become wholesale Western (something they fear). Zakaria yet again -
“Look at Singapore, Hong Kong and Seoul,” I said, pointing to their extraordinary economic achievements. The man — a gentle, charming, erudite and pro-Western journalist — straightened up and replied sharply, “Look at them. They have simply aped the West. Their cities are cheap copies of Houston and Dallas. That may be all right for fishing villages, but we are heirs to one of the great civilizations of the world. We cannot become slums of the West.”
This sense of pride and fall is at the heart of the Arab problem. It makes economic advance impossible and political progress fraught with difficulty.
What's important to point out these folks is that while afar it may seem
Japan is becoming a little America, from up close we know that this is far from true. American poli-wonks (especially of a Libertarian ilk) see Japan as almost Socialist (or at least quite Mercantile) and just barely an LD+C - but that's been enough to prevent Bushido-infused Kamikaze's and ensure that she plays well with others. India is also moving down this track and 20somethings there now see national pride in economics rather than Indo-Sino or Indo-Pak wars. Even mega China is (slowly) turning this corner - and none of these countries are in immediate danger of being mistaken for the US. Depending on where you draw the line between culture and politics, a full cultural "memocide" of the Middle East is not required and yet this is precisely what so many "anti-liberalism moderates" in the region fear. This needs to be demonstrated false.
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LD + C can be externally kicked off. Full imposition no. But breaking the chains that hold it back currently ? Yes. Current trendlines in the region are NOT favorable towards LD+C - as long as the regimes can count on oil revenue for the immediate future (5-10 yrs), 5, perhaps 10% of the population is able to suppress everyone else. VDH has some great examples -
One does not have to go back to ancient Athens — in 507 or 403 B.C. — to grasp the depressing fact that most authoritarians do not surrender power voluntarily. There would be no democracy today in Japan, South Korea, Italy, or Germany without the Americans' defeat of fascists and Communists. Democracies in France and most of Western Europe were born from Anglo-American liberation; European resistance to German occupation was an utter failure. Panama, Granada, Serbia, and Afghanistan would have had no chance of a future without the intervention of American troops.
All of Eastern Europe is free today only because of American deterrence and decades of military opposition to Communism. Very rarely in the modern age do democratic reforms emerge spontaneously and indigenously (ask the North Koreans, Cubans, or North Vietnamese). Tragically, positive change almost always appears after a war in which authoritarians lose or are discredited (Argentina or Greece), bow to economic or cultural coercion (South Africa), or are forced to hold elections (Nicaragua).
So, the big point? LD+C is the best, most comprehensive long term solution we've got. Wilsonians should be overjoyed! This, my friends, is the core of the NeoCon agenda. Some implications:
- LD+C may be Good Things but it doesn't mean it will be easy to establish in the Arab world. Pointing out the tribalness of Iraqi society, for ex., merely tells us that the task is hard. It doesn't prove the task unnecessary.
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The timeframes here are measured in YEARS and possibly DECADES. Post WWII Germany, for ex., only had thier first elections some 7 years after V-E day.
- Because of Oil, aggressive action (i.e. spilt blood) maybe the only way to get us there.
How do we get there? That's the topic of
Swamp Draining - III.